Miami Congress (Dr. Yun) Pt. 2
On home price trends:
1) Miami as a whole is down 15%. The areas with subprime property prices are down 35%.
2) In areas with no subprime foreclosures prices are unchanged.
3) Long time buyers are doing fine. Flippers are out of luck.
4) Location is more important than ever.
5) Wall street is facing and taking huge write-downs. The new CEOs are writing down losses that are higher than the real losses so they can be heroes and take credit for the major turnaround.
6) Mortgage rates are died to inflation, not to the Fed Funds Rate. Adjustable rates are tied to LIBOR.
Continued…..
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Showing posts with label Subprime defaults. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Subprime defaults. Show all posts
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Miami Congress (Dr. Yun) Pt. 1
Miami Congress (Dr. Yun) Pt. 1
A really great part of the Miami Congress is the presentation from the senior NAR economist. Dr. Lawrence Yun follows a couple of really great economist and he upholds the tradition well. I hope to have access to his overheads, which have a lot of numbers, soon. When I get that I will link you to them. Here we go from my presentation notes.
1) The current downturn follows an exceptional boom. There are several reasons for the downturn. They are primarily irrational exuberance and speculation.
2) The longterm market fundamentals are good.
3) “After the cleanup”. Subprime origination peaked in 2006. It had virtually disappeared by August of 2007.
4) Subprime defaults should rise through 1st Qtr of 2009.
5) Over half of defaults are from subprime. Only 9% of the loans are subprime.
6) Foreclosure has doubled from 1% to 2%. Detroit is 1st, Miami is 2nd. Areas with low subprime percentages are still seeing price growth.
Continued…..
A really great part of the Miami Congress is the presentation from the senior NAR economist. Dr. Lawrence Yun follows a couple of really great economist and he upholds the tradition well. I hope to have access to his overheads, which have a lot of numbers, soon. When I get that I will link you to them. Here we go from my presentation notes.
1) The current downturn follows an exceptional boom. There are several reasons for the downturn. They are primarily irrational exuberance and speculation.
2) The longterm market fundamentals are good.
3) “After the cleanup”. Subprime origination peaked in 2006. It had virtually disappeared by August of 2007.
4) Subprime defaults should rise through 1st Qtr of 2009.
5) Over half of defaults are from subprime. Only 9% of the loans are subprime.
6) Foreclosure has doubled from 1% to 2%. Detroit is 1st, Miami is 2nd. Areas with low subprime percentages are still seeing price growth.
Continued…..
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