They certainly made Lawrence Welk famous. The economies of Central and Eastern Europe were the last to go into the tank. They had been buoyed some by membership in the European Union. Latvia’s real estate had been propped up by unrealistic lending criteria.
When the bubble did pop, it splattered hard. Most of these economies, except for a few little pockets, dropped like a rock. The thing to remember about emerging economies is that they move really fast. This has been the lesson learned in South America. The USA or western Europe may take years to recover. When these small economies take off, it will be rocket-ship style.
I’m not saying that it is time to buy. It is time to look for market landmarks. There will be some awesome opportunities and some terrific profits will be made. If it is not time to buy it is at least time for close observation of these markets. The examination must be of the general market; but pay close attention to micro markets. There will be pockets of greater opportunity. A rising tide supposedly raises all the boats. Some of these boats may have already sunk.
David Segrest is a REALTOR® in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com He is also a contributor on Argentina to: http://realestatebloginternational.com/
Showing posts with label market landmarks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label market landmarks. Show all posts
Friday, August 27, 2010
Friday, April 11, 2008
A Market Landmark in the Real Estate Industry
A Market Landmark in the Real Estate Industry
Today in Seoul, I taught the Americas. I think I have recognized a sea change in the real estate industry. This change has been noticeable in the emerging markets where the classes are offered. S. Korea is not an emerging market.
At least 1/3 and probably half of the students in this class are university students. They are not undergraduates. They are graduate students. They are the best and the brightest. Real estate is their 1st career. Most of us in this industry have come to real estate as a second (or third or fourth) career. We either fail at other things first or are successful enough that we can really do what we want.
I don’t know that this change in the industry will mean an opportunity for some type of investment. I do believe it will change our industry irrevocably. For one thing most of us who grew up in other industries made our worst mistakes there. We brought general business experience to our new endeavors. The flip side of that is that we brought our hardened attitudes and ideas. I have some ideas about what will happen next. Tomorrow, I will spend another day with my students and see what I can learn before I “expound my great wisdom and experience.”
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Today in Seoul, I taught the Americas. I think I have recognized a sea change in the real estate industry. This change has been noticeable in the emerging markets where the classes are offered. S. Korea is not an emerging market.
At least 1/3 and probably half of the students in this class are university students. They are not undergraduates. They are graduate students. They are the best and the brightest. Real estate is their 1st career. Most of us in this industry have come to real estate as a second (or third or fourth) career. We either fail at other things first or are successful enough that we can really do what we want.
I don’t know that this change in the industry will mean an opportunity for some type of investment. I do believe it will change our industry irrevocably. For one thing most of us who grew up in other industries made our worst mistakes there. We brought general business experience to our new endeavors. The flip side of that is that we brought our hardened attitudes and ideas. I have some ideas about what will happen next. Tomorrow, I will spend another day with my students and see what I can learn before I “expound my great wisdom and experience.”
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
More Market Landmarks
More Market Landmarks
But what do they mean? The euro costs $1.5767 at this moment. Bear Stearns has sold for $2 per share. What does this mean for you and your clients? Does the cheap dollar indicate time for a feeding frenzy? Does it indicate a time to wait and see if it drops some more?
For those of us who are holding our money in dollars the situation is even more dire. If we hold our money looking for opportunities, the money may lose even more value. If we buy local assets, they may lose value. If we buy foreign assets and the dollar comes back strong we lose again. In times like these, I have always told my clients either to hold their cash or to buy property depending on the situation. I don’t know what to tell them now.
I do not see the USA economy recovering as long as George Bush is in office. I think it is a safe bet that the Yen and the Euro will continue to rise at least until after the elections. I also think it is a safe bet that interest rates will fall. The problem is nobody wants to make loans. If one can find loans, this fall should be a good time to refinance. I don’t know where to put money though. The American economies are too closely tied to the dollar. China is too dependent on oil. Europe is overpriced. Sorry, no answers today. Only questions.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
But what do they mean? The euro costs $1.5767 at this moment. Bear Stearns has sold for $2 per share. What does this mean for you and your clients? Does the cheap dollar indicate time for a feeding frenzy? Does it indicate a time to wait and see if it drops some more?
For those of us who are holding our money in dollars the situation is even more dire. If we hold our money looking for opportunities, the money may lose even more value. If we buy local assets, they may lose value. If we buy foreign assets and the dollar comes back strong we lose again. In times like these, I have always told my clients either to hold their cash or to buy property depending on the situation. I don’t know what to tell them now.
I do not see the USA economy recovering as long as George Bush is in office. I think it is a safe bet that the Yen and the Euro will continue to rise at least until after the elections. I also think it is a safe bet that interest rates will fall. The problem is nobody wants to make loans. If one can find loans, this fall should be a good time to refinance. I don’t know where to put money though. The American economies are too closely tied to the dollar. China is too dependent on oil. Europe is overpriced. Sorry, no answers today. Only questions.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Market Landmarkes
Market Landmarks
Normally this blog talks about international issues and properties. I think market landmarks are approaching for many areas in the USA. Many of the properties on the market are fairly priced or under-priced. They are suffering from the general hysteria. Watch for good properties that have been on the market a while. Talk to the listing agent or owner and get their opinion on why the property hasn’t sold. Investigate the reason for validity. Do a rental analysis to see if the property will support itself during a holding period. Make a low but reasonable offer.
I think the market in general will come back strong within 6 to 10 months. The demand is still there. Fear has paralyzed the market.
The exceptions to this condition are the properties in neighborhoods with a lot of foreclosures. Many of these properties are being purchased by investors. They will become rental properties. Many of these properties were shoddy construction to start with. Life as a rental home is not easy even for quality properties. I doubt that these neighborhoods will ever recover totally and even when they do, their appreciation will probably be less than the general market.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Normally this blog talks about international issues and properties. I think market landmarks are approaching for many areas in the USA. Many of the properties on the market are fairly priced or under-priced. They are suffering from the general hysteria. Watch for good properties that have been on the market a while. Talk to the listing agent or owner and get their opinion on why the property hasn’t sold. Investigate the reason for validity. Do a rental analysis to see if the property will support itself during a holding period. Make a low but reasonable offer.
I think the market in general will come back strong within 6 to 10 months. The demand is still there. Fear has paralyzed the market.
The exceptions to this condition are the properties in neighborhoods with a lot of foreclosures. Many of these properties are being purchased by investors. They will become rental properties. Many of these properties were shoddy construction to start with. Life as a rental home is not easy even for quality properties. I doubt that these neighborhoods will ever recover totally and even when they do, their appreciation will probably be less than the general market.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Wednesday, August 1, 2007
Market Landmarks
Market Landmarks
Savvy investors in all fields look for market landmarks. Market landmarks are indicators of a possible shift in risk or yield. They may be selling signals or buying signals. A huge landmark in recent events was the end of hostilities in the former Yugoslavia. The real estate markets in these countries have boomed. As countries join the European Union, they have a strong upward swing in real estate prices. Joining the Euro has the same results.
The Middle East could be an excellent place to look for market landmarks. One only has to look at Qatar and Dubai to realize what could happen with liberal stabile regimes in this part of the world. Murmurs of peace or liberalizations of regimes can be market landmarks. One thing to remember though: Change can also bring instability which will, at least temporarily, affect markets negatively.
A good example of this is when Suharto left power in Indonesia. The resulting instability is still affecting conditions there. A slow return to normality will improve conditions. Certain areas like Aceh may be slower to return to stability. There is a great deal of profit to be made in taking advantage of this type of system change. One of the oldest investment maxims is, “The time to buy is when the blood is in the streets”. While that may be a little extreme, turmoil does indicate a possibility of opportunity.
Other market landmarks may be less ominous. The uncoupling of the dollar and the peso and the freezing of assets in Argentina caused some great buying opportunities. The peso has, after the initial crash, maintained its position against the dollar. This could be as much a result of negative events in the USA economy as positive events in Argentina’s economy. Commodity prices are strong and Argentina is a commodities based economy.
How does an individual investor identify and take advantage of market landmarks? That would be a good subject for a later blog.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte, NC
David S. Segrest, CIPS, CCIM, TRC, CEA
david@segrestrealty.com
http://www.segrestrealty.com
Serving the world in the Carolinas, Serving the Carolinas in the World
Savvy investors in all fields look for market landmarks. Market landmarks are indicators of a possible shift in risk or yield. They may be selling signals or buying signals. A huge landmark in recent events was the end of hostilities in the former Yugoslavia. The real estate markets in these countries have boomed. As countries join the European Union, they have a strong upward swing in real estate prices. Joining the Euro has the same results.
The Middle East could be an excellent place to look for market landmarks. One only has to look at Qatar and Dubai to realize what could happen with liberal stabile regimes in this part of the world. Murmurs of peace or liberalizations of regimes can be market landmarks. One thing to remember though: Change can also bring instability which will, at least temporarily, affect markets negatively.
A good example of this is when Suharto left power in Indonesia. The resulting instability is still affecting conditions there. A slow return to normality will improve conditions. Certain areas like Aceh may be slower to return to stability. There is a great deal of profit to be made in taking advantage of this type of system change. One of the oldest investment maxims is, “The time to buy is when the blood is in the streets”. While that may be a little extreme, turmoil does indicate a possibility of opportunity.
Other market landmarks may be less ominous. The uncoupling of the dollar and the peso and the freezing of assets in Argentina caused some great buying opportunities. The peso has, after the initial crash, maintained its position against the dollar. This could be as much a result of negative events in the USA economy as positive events in Argentina’s economy. Commodity prices are strong and Argentina is a commodities based economy.
How does an individual investor identify and take advantage of market landmarks? That would be a good subject for a later blog.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte, NC
David S. Segrest, CIPS, CCIM, TRC, CEA
david@segrestrealty.com
http://www.segrestrealty.com
Serving the world in the Carolinas, Serving the Carolinas in the World
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