Thoughts from O'Hare

Thoughts from O’hare

I have been looking at the “Consensus Forecast” from Latin Trade magazine for the coming year. Latin America overall seems to be declining a little from the strong economic growth that has been experienced over the last year or so. The still are projected to have fairly good growth.

As long as commodity prices hold up the Latin American countries should do well. Tourism is a big shot in the arm and several of the economies are developing non-commodity sectors. The “new left” of the Spanish world has discovered that the best way to help the poorer people is to promote the economy. Thankfully, they are putting some of the new wealth into education and job creation and infrastructure instead of dividing it up among a few friends.

Transparency and good government are the order of the day. The exceptions being Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador. Bolivia has commodities; but can’t seem to profit from them. Ecuador’s most profitable commodity is the relationship with Hugo Chavez. While Venezuela is flush, they are buying influence. Commodities prices will probably remain high for many years; but they may not remain “relatively” high. The increased cost of fuel and raw materials and food is driving up the cost of everything else. While having a high income is nice, if the costs of imported goods continues to rise. The commodity producing economies will see their advantages reduced.

I asked a friend from Bolivia if she was worried about Evo Morales. She said, “Our presidents don’t last that long anyway.”




David Segrest is a REALTOR with Segrest International REALTORS. His webpage is http://www.segrestrealty.com