Trying to Dodge Stupidity is Stupid
I just received my Visa for next weeks trip to China. I had to send my passport (one of my most prized possessions) off to get the visa. I was afraid that embassy personnel ( being beurocrats) might lose my passport. I used “China Visa Service”. Their application includes two places for the shipping address. I put my post office as preferred.
I put my office as the second because they ship by FED-EX. My passport did not come Monday. I called Tuesday AM. They said it had been sent Friday and I should have it. They gave me the tracking #. I tracked it and found that there had been an attempted delivery at 10:00 and they would try again on Wednesday. I knew I was in my office all morning, I cursed FED-EX for stupidity and made signs for the doors saying to come on in and leaving my cell phone #.
When I got home, there was a door tag on my back door indicating the attempted delivery. They could not change delivery address without contacting the shipper. I managed to get them to deliver to a FED-EX office near my office. I could have saved about $40 and sent my passport to the Chinese Embassy. I will do that next time.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Saturday, June 28, 2008
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Xenophobia, Visas and International Real Estate
Xenophobia, Visas and International Real Estate
One of the preparations for a trip to China is getting a visa. The process is aggravating. The cost is high $205 and I have to send my passport away. The visa is for single entry and is only good for 90 days. Do you think I would like to buy a vacation home in China?
As the holder of a US passport, there are very few countries that require a visa. But what about the way the US treats visitors from most of the world? The visa requirements and the treatment people receive at our borders and airports is a major deterrent to investment and tourism here. With the US dollar at ridiculously low levels and real estate prices dropping we could be a desirable target for vacation home buyers. An improvement in this market would help our real estate industry and our general economy.
As a private citizen and a real estate agent, what can I do? I can apologize; but I am pretty powerless to change things. I can recommend properties in Central and South America. As a matter of fact that is what I am doing. I don’t mean to be unpatriotic about this being the greatest country in the world and all that. I just don’t want my clients and friends to have to start their trip with a dose of Homeland Insecurity.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
One of the preparations for a trip to China is getting a visa. The process is aggravating. The cost is high $205 and I have to send my passport away. The visa is for single entry and is only good for 90 days. Do you think I would like to buy a vacation home in China?
As the holder of a US passport, there are very few countries that require a visa. But what about the way the US treats visitors from most of the world? The visa requirements and the treatment people receive at our borders and airports is a major deterrent to investment and tourism here. With the US dollar at ridiculously low levels and real estate prices dropping we could be a desirable target for vacation home buyers. An improvement in this market would help our real estate industry and our general economy.
As a private citizen and a real estate agent, what can I do? I can apologize; but I am pretty powerless to change things. I can recommend properties in Central and South America. As a matter of fact that is what I am doing. I don’t mean to be unpatriotic about this being the greatest country in the world and all that. I just don’t want my clients and friends to have to start their trip with a dose of Homeland Insecurity.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Monday, June 23, 2008
Miami Congress (Dr. Yun) Pt. 4
Miami Congress (Dr. Yun) Pt. 4
On the economy:
1) The inflation rate is high and rising. Consumer sentiment is way down. The economy is expanding at a very slow rate.
2) Corporate profits are very high. The stock market is undervalued.
3) Vacation home sales are falling. The currency differential offers some opportunities. The US home prices are falling in Brazillian Real.
4) Freddie & Fannie have been in “declining market policy” mode. This calls for higher lending criteria. This policy is being removed during the month of June.
Sorry if this sounds disjointed. It is from my notes at the presentation. All of the statements are direct quotes or paraphrases from Dr. Yun’s talk.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
On the economy:
1) The inflation rate is high and rising. Consumer sentiment is way down. The economy is expanding at a very slow rate.
2) Corporate profits are very high. The stock market is undervalued.
3) Vacation home sales are falling. The currency differential offers some opportunities. The US home prices are falling in Brazillian Real.
4) Freddie & Fannie have been in “declining market policy” mode. This calls for higher lending criteria. This policy is being removed during the month of June.
Sorry if this sounds disjointed. It is from my notes at the presentation. All of the statements are direct quotes or paraphrases from Dr. Yun’s talk.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Friday, June 20, 2008
Miami Congress (Dr. Yun) Pt. 3
Miami Congress (Dr. Yun) Pt. 3
1) Housing market activity is at its lowest rate in 10 years
2) Projected price declines are causing pessimism in the market.
3) Prices seem to have stabilized. 80 % of the homes listed are listed because the owner wants to buy a new home.
4) The high vancancy in New (vacant) homes is declining do to cutbacks in construction.
5) Long term we need 1.6 million new homes per year. In 2006 there was and oversupply. Now the input is down to 1 million homes per year.
6) Price declines have been very speedy, over time there a potential for large price increases.
continued
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
1) Housing market activity is at its lowest rate in 10 years
2) Projected price declines are causing pessimism in the market.
3) Prices seem to have stabilized. 80 % of the homes listed are listed because the owner wants to buy a new home.
4) The high vancancy in New (vacant) homes is declining do to cutbacks in construction.
5) Long term we need 1.6 million new homes per year. In 2006 there was and oversupply. Now the input is down to 1 million homes per year.
6) Price declines have been very speedy, over time there a potential for large price increases.
continued
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Miami Congress (Dr. Yun) Pt. 2
Miami Congress (Dr. Yun) Pt. 2
On home price trends:
1) Miami as a whole is down 15%. The areas with subprime property prices are down 35%.
2) In areas with no subprime foreclosures prices are unchanged.
3) Long time buyers are doing fine. Flippers are out of luck.
4) Location is more important than ever.
5) Wall street is facing and taking huge write-downs. The new CEOs are writing down losses that are higher than the real losses so they can be heroes and take credit for the major turnaround.
6) Mortgage rates are died to inflation, not to the Fed Funds Rate. Adjustable rates are tied to LIBOR.
Continued…..
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
On home price trends:
1) Miami as a whole is down 15%. The areas with subprime property prices are down 35%.
2) In areas with no subprime foreclosures prices are unchanged.
3) Long time buyers are doing fine. Flippers are out of luck.
4) Location is more important than ever.
5) Wall street is facing and taking huge write-downs. The new CEOs are writing down losses that are higher than the real losses so they can be heroes and take credit for the major turnaround.
6) Mortgage rates are died to inflation, not to the Fed Funds Rate. Adjustable rates are tied to LIBOR.
Continued…..
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Miami Congress (Dr. Yun) Pt. 1
Miami Congress (Dr. Yun) Pt. 1
A really great part of the Miami Congress is the presentation from the senior NAR economist. Dr. Lawrence Yun follows a couple of really great economist and he upholds the tradition well. I hope to have access to his overheads, which have a lot of numbers, soon. When I get that I will link you to them. Here we go from my presentation notes.
1) The current downturn follows an exceptional boom. There are several reasons for the downturn. They are primarily irrational exuberance and speculation.
2) The longterm market fundamentals are good.
3) “After the cleanup”. Subprime origination peaked in 2006. It had virtually disappeared by August of 2007.
4) Subprime defaults should rise through 1st Qtr of 2009.
5) Over half of defaults are from subprime. Only 9% of the loans are subprime.
6) Foreclosure has doubled from 1% to 2%. Detroit is 1st, Miami is 2nd. Areas with low subprime percentages are still seeing price growth.
Continued…..
A really great part of the Miami Congress is the presentation from the senior NAR economist. Dr. Lawrence Yun follows a couple of really great economist and he upholds the tradition well. I hope to have access to his overheads, which have a lot of numbers, soon. When I get that I will link you to them. Here we go from my presentation notes.
1) The current downturn follows an exceptional boom. There are several reasons for the downturn. They are primarily irrational exuberance and speculation.
2) The longterm market fundamentals are good.
3) “After the cleanup”. Subprime origination peaked in 2006. It had virtually disappeared by August of 2007.
4) Subprime defaults should rise through 1st Qtr of 2009.
5) Over half of defaults are from subprime. Only 9% of the loans are subprime.
6) Foreclosure has doubled from 1% to 2%. Detroit is 1st, Miami is 2nd. Areas with low subprime percentages are still seeing price growth.
Continued…..
Thursday, June 12, 2008
S. Florida and the Latin America Connection
S. Florida and the Latin Connection
My favorite part of the Miami Congress is the presentation that Mike Zellner of Latin Trade does each year. These are the points he made on the above subject:
1) Political instability in Latin America leads to Miami Immigration. It is always apparent which countries are having problems. They come to Miami. They don’t usually stay. When things get better they go home.
2) The weakening dollar is increasing shopping.
3) The economies of the developing countries are not slowing as much as those of the developed countries because of strong internal growth.
4) Bad service in the Port of Miami is forcing trade North.
5) The governments in most of Latin America are more competent than the governments in South Florida.
Mike showed a chart showing the number of International headquarters in different Latin cities. Sao Paulo was 1st with over 200. Mexico City was second and Miami was 3rd. I am requesting a copy of his presentation and I will share the numbers with you when I get them. Dr. Lawrence Yun, The NAR economist speaks next. I will give you a summary of his presentation in the next blog.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
My favorite part of the Miami Congress is the presentation that Mike Zellner of Latin Trade does each year. These are the points he made on the above subject:
1) Political instability in Latin America leads to Miami Immigration. It is always apparent which countries are having problems. They come to Miami. They don’t usually stay. When things get better they go home.
2) The weakening dollar is increasing shopping.
3) The economies of the developing countries are not slowing as much as those of the developed countries because of strong internal growth.
4) Bad service in the Port of Miami is forcing trade North.
5) The governments in most of Latin America are more competent than the governments in South Florida.
Mike showed a chart showing the number of International headquarters in different Latin cities. Sao Paulo was 1st with over 200. Mexico City was second and Miami was 3rd. I am requesting a copy of his presentation and I will share the numbers with you when I get them. Dr. Lawrence Yun, The NAR economist speaks next. I will give you a summary of his presentation in the next blog.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Miami and Costa Rica
Miami & Costa Rica
Last night we attended a Gala at a high rise resort. The property is almost sold out to people who purchased several years ago. These buyers are the losers at Miami’s musical chairs game. They are the speculators who put 20% down on the properties expecting them to go up 30% per year. Some of these may be the people who purchased originally. Some probably bought the contracts for a higher price. Some may have bought the contracts at a discount. I think it would be much more advantageous to buy from the builder now. The best deal of course will be to wait until the market finds its bottom. The views are unbelievable, the construction and floor plans and amenities are wonderful. The fundamentals are there. The market is not.
I have been talking to Mike Torino about his development in Costa Rica. It really sounds like a great project. The developer of the project kind of turned me off when he spoke about Costa Rica to the conference. He really didn’t say much about how great Costa Rica was. He mostly just dissed Panama, Nicaragua and Belize (the competition).
I still like the project. They have “You fly, we buy gathering weekends”. You buy the airline ticket. The developers pick you up at the airport and take you for a fun filled weekend with horseback riding, ziplining, fishing, dancing and parties. Mike says that there is no sales pressure at all. They let the good times and the wonderful place do the selling. If you need an invitation contact me.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Last night we attended a Gala at a high rise resort. The property is almost sold out to people who purchased several years ago. These buyers are the losers at Miami’s musical chairs game. They are the speculators who put 20% down on the properties expecting them to go up 30% per year. Some of these may be the people who purchased originally. Some probably bought the contracts for a higher price. Some may have bought the contracts at a discount. I think it would be much more advantageous to buy from the builder now. The best deal of course will be to wait until the market finds its bottom. The views are unbelievable, the construction and floor plans and amenities are wonderful. The fundamentals are there. The market is not.
I have been talking to Mike Torino about his development in Costa Rica. It really sounds like a great project. The developer of the project kind of turned me off when he spoke about Costa Rica to the conference. He really didn’t say much about how great Costa Rica was. He mostly just dissed Panama, Nicaragua and Belize (the competition).
I still like the project. They have “You fly, we buy gathering weekends”. You buy the airline ticket. The developers pick you up at the airport and take you for a fun filled weekend with horseback riding, ziplining, fishing, dancing and parties. Mike says that there is no sales pressure at all. They let the good times and the wonderful place do the selling. If you need an invitation contact me.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Miami Real Estate Congress
Miami Real Estate Congress
Here I am in the Charlotte airport again, headed for the Miami Congress. This is one of my favorite events of the year. To put a cherry on my ice cream, I am also flying out of concourse “C”. My gate is directly across from Phillips Seafood. It is too early for lunch; but I will eat it anyway.
The Miami congress is one of my favorite events of the year. The days are filled with really great educational events. My favorite is the update by Mike Zellner of Latin Trade Magazine. He and his magazine know more about Latin America than anyone. The evenings are filled with really great property tours. They are really parties; but we do look at the properties. Miami is one of the places where “the music has stopped” (not the salsa music, just the real estate music). I hope the developers will be generous this year.
The networking here is fantastic as well. People from all over Europe & South America will be at the conference. I have attended every conference except the 1st one. I have never failed to do at least one transaction as a direct or indirect result of the congress. The address for the congress is http://www.miamire.com
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Here I am in the Charlotte airport again, headed for the Miami Congress. This is one of my favorite events of the year. To put a cherry on my ice cream, I am also flying out of concourse “C”. My gate is directly across from Phillips Seafood. It is too early for lunch; but I will eat it anyway.
The Miami congress is one of my favorite events of the year. The days are filled with really great educational events. My favorite is the update by Mike Zellner of Latin Trade Magazine. He and his magazine know more about Latin America than anyone. The evenings are filled with really great property tours. They are really parties; but we do look at the properties. Miami is one of the places where “the music has stopped” (not the salsa music, just the real estate music). I hope the developers will be generous this year.
The networking here is fantastic as well. People from all over Europe & South America will be at the conference. I have attended every conference except the 1st one. I have never failed to do at least one transaction as a direct or indirect result of the congress. The address for the congress is http://www.miamire.com
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Sunday, June 8, 2008
California Dreamin'
California Dreamin’
I’m writing from the Red Carpet Club in San Francisco Airport. At the end of a Middle East and Africa course, I want to share some of what I learned from my students and a co-instructor. Only 1 student was from California; and he was not from the San Francisco area. He said the residential market was “a little slow”. The commercial market is doing fine. He is working with Israeli investors.
Two agents from Belize are doing more buying than selling. They say the Chinese are gobbling up all the good beachfront properties in Belize. Smart people. My co-instructor was a refugee from IBM who had worked in Namibia, and Zambia. I was really impressed with what he told us about these countries. I intend to let them be the subject of future research and another blog or two.
I got to meet with a former student from a Nicaragua class. He has a really interesting property of around 200 acres, waterfront in Panama on the Caribbean side. He does not have an exclusive listing; so I am afraid to talk about it. He is working on the listing. If he gets it, I will feature the property here.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
I’m writing from the Red Carpet Club in San Francisco Airport. At the end of a Middle East and Africa course, I want to share some of what I learned from my students and a co-instructor. Only 1 student was from California; and he was not from the San Francisco area. He said the residential market was “a little slow”. The commercial market is doing fine. He is working with Israeli investors.
Two agents from Belize are doing more buying than selling. They say the Chinese are gobbling up all the good beachfront properties in Belize. Smart people. My co-instructor was a refugee from IBM who had worked in Namibia, and Zambia. I was really impressed with what he told us about these countries. I intend to let them be the subject of future research and another blog or two.
I got to meet with a former student from a Nicaragua class. He has a really interesting property of around 200 acres, waterfront in Panama on the Caribbean side. He does not have an exclusive listing; so I am afraid to talk about it. He is working on the listing. If he gets it, I will feature the property here.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Saturday, June 7, 2008
Correction about Frankfurt
Correction About Frankfurt
In an earlier blog I said “The best thing about the Red Carpet Club in Frankfurt was that they didn’t have one.” We have to use the Lufthansa club. Well I’m wrong. This trip through I am going out of concourse “C”. They do have a Red Carpet Club. What a contrast.
Lufthansa had a full breakfast buffet. United has pretzels, crackers and liverwurst. Both clubs have lots of booze. In the states one buys the booze. How much booze do you want before getting on an airplane? In the states Red Carpet has free internet. Here they have T-Mobile. The whole airport has T-mobile. What is the benefit.
On another note. My last two flights have been on TAROM (the Romanian airline). I am so happy that my next leg will be on United. The airplanes and the food are ok. The real problem with TAROM is the company. They are severely understaffed so everything takes forever. Their people would not smile on a bet. I really do like to “fly the friendly skies”.
In an earlier blog I said “The best thing about the Red Carpet Club in Frankfurt was that they didn’t have one.” We have to use the Lufthansa club. Well I’m wrong. This trip through I am going out of concourse “C”. They do have a Red Carpet Club. What a contrast.
Lufthansa had a full breakfast buffet. United has pretzels, crackers and liverwurst. Both clubs have lots of booze. In the states one buys the booze. How much booze do you want before getting on an airplane? In the states Red Carpet has free internet. Here they have T-Mobile. The whole airport has T-mobile. What is the benefit.
On another note. My last two flights have been on TAROM (the Romanian airline). I am so happy that my next leg will be on United. The airplanes and the food are ok. The real problem with TAROM is the company. They are severely understaffed so everything takes forever. Their people would not smile on a bet. I really do like to “fly the friendly skies”.
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Message from Romania
Message from Romania
My Romanian Students have a message for you:
Group 1 said: “Romania is a geographically and culturally beautiful country with a dynamic growing economical and financial business climate and special people with high capacity. You are more than welcome to invest together with us.”
Group 2 said: “Take the opportunity of a growing market in a colorful authentic environment. Based on the upward trend of the dynamic economy the real estate market is ready to begin its next upward surge. Invest in Romania.”
The class worked on these statements for 3 days. The goal was to tell you about Romania in as few words as possible. These are the exact words of the students in English. Everyone in the class spoke some English as a second language. I felt that it was important to use their exact words.
My Romanian Students have a message for you:
Group 1 said: “Romania is a geographically and culturally beautiful country with a dynamic growing economical and financial business climate and special people with high capacity. You are more than welcome to invest together with us.”
Group 2 said: “Take the opportunity of a growing market in a colorful authentic environment. Based on the upward trend of the dynamic economy the real estate market is ready to begin its next upward surge. Invest in Romania.”
The class worked on these statements for 3 days. The goal was to tell you about Romania in as few words as possible. These are the exact words of the students in English. Everyone in the class spoke some English as a second language. I felt that it was important to use their exact words.
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