It’s The Economy, Stupid
Or is that the stupid economy? The real downturn in our economy began with the anticipation of the George Bush presidency. His crazy ideas got everyone scared. As bad as his economic policies are, they are not the problem. The problem is fear. The fear started with the anticipation of his presidency. It was exacerbated by the cynicism that had been engendered by the super partisan spirit during the Clinton administration.
Enron, 911, the political scandals and the pointless war in Iraq, created a negative atmosphere that even the most effervescent optimist could not overcome. This has snowballed until no-one trusts government or business or the news media. Mass fear became mass cynicism. It morphed into a collective pessimism and depression. It has now blossomed into full fledged mass hysteria.
The only cure for this will be a charismatic leader. Bill Clinton could do it. I don’t know about Hilary. I know John McCain can’t do it. Maybe Barack Obama? We really need a John F. Kennedy.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Monday, March 31, 2008
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Change of Schedule
Change of Schedule
The CIPS classes in the Romanian mountains have been changed to May 22 through May 29. For those of you who want to go, the class is limited to 20 students. You had better hurry.
The change in schedule means that I will be able to attend the International Real Estate Congress in Miami. This conference is from June 10-12 at the Biltmore Hotel in Miami. The congress itself is fantastic. The day is intense educational and informational sessions. The night is intense “networking activities”. The hotel is also a major part of the enjoyment.
This is a gorgeous old hotel. It is haunted and has the largest swimming pool in the Southeast. The lobby is so fantastic that “Quincineras” from all over the country come to get their picture made there. Here is a link to the congress: http://www.brokerprofitability.com/PageManager/Default.aspx/PageID=2086988&NF=1
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
The CIPS classes in the Romanian mountains have been changed to May 22 through May 29. For those of you who want to go, the class is limited to 20 students. You had better hurry.
The change in schedule means that I will be able to attend the International Real Estate Congress in Miami. This conference is from June 10-12 at the Biltmore Hotel in Miami. The congress itself is fantastic. The day is intense educational and informational sessions. The night is intense “networking activities”. The hotel is also a major part of the enjoyment.
This is a gorgeous old hotel. It is haunted and has the largest swimming pool in the Southeast. The lobby is so fantastic that “Quincineras” from all over the country come to get their picture made there. Here is a link to the congress: http://www.brokerprofitability.com/PageManager/Default.aspx/PageID=2086988&NF=1
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Bill Clinton Comes to Thomas St. Tavern
Bill Clinton Comes to Thomas St. Tavern
Friday at about 12:00 my friend Eddie Clark called me. “David, are you in town?”
“I am Eddie. What’s up?”
“You have got to get down to Thomas St. right away. This place is crawling with secret service. Bill Clinton is coming here for lunch.”
That was a fortuitous occasion. My favorite president and my favorite tavern were in the same place at the same time. I was supposed to have lunch with a friend; but I called and cancelled. I got to see Bill Clinton and Erskine Bowles having lunch. Nobody much knew about it so the place was pretty quiet except for all of the secret service people. President Clinton had a salad and a “Garden Burger”. He drank unsweetened ice tea. He has lost a lot of weight.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Friday at about 12:00 my friend Eddie Clark called me. “David, are you in town?”
“I am Eddie. What’s up?”
“You have got to get down to Thomas St. right away. This place is crawling with secret service. Bill Clinton is coming here for lunch.”
That was a fortuitous occasion. My favorite president and my favorite tavern were in the same place at the same time. I was supposed to have lunch with a friend; but I called and cancelled. I got to see Bill Clinton and Erskine Bowles having lunch. Nobody much knew about it so the place was pretty quiet except for all of the secret service people. President Clinton had a salad and a “Garden Burger”. He drank unsweetened ice tea. He has lost a lot of weight.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Thursday, March 20, 2008
More Questions
More Questions
Is the price of oil really going up so much; or is it just reacting to the drop in the dollar? How long before the oil producers get fed up and switch to the Euro? Does it matter? It seems that oil producing nations should be awash in cash. They should be using their new found wealth to bolster education, promote non-commodities based industries and provide for the general welfare of their citizens. Fat chance.
Look at Venezuela. The Bolivar is going down the toilet like a super-flush. Chavez’s “Bolivarian revolution” uses revolution in the sense of the word that means “to revolve”. They are headed back for the old “banana republic” days. How long can he last? Is this a market landmark? Is the time right to buy in Venezuela? Will someone who knows respond? That is of course, if anyone actually reads this blog.
The news for the last few days reminds me of the old Chinese curse: “May you live in interesting times.” These are definitely interesting times. I am interested in benefiting from the changes. How?David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Is the price of oil really going up so much; or is it just reacting to the drop in the dollar? How long before the oil producers get fed up and switch to the Euro? Does it matter? It seems that oil producing nations should be awash in cash. They should be using their new found wealth to bolster education, promote non-commodities based industries and provide for the general welfare of their citizens. Fat chance.
Look at Venezuela. The Bolivar is going down the toilet like a super-flush. Chavez’s “Bolivarian revolution” uses revolution in the sense of the word that means “to revolve”. They are headed back for the old “banana republic” days. How long can he last? Is this a market landmark? Is the time right to buy in Venezuela? Will someone who knows respond? That is of course, if anyone actually reads this blog.
The news for the last few days reminds me of the old Chinese curse: “May you live in interesting times.” These are definitely interesting times. I am interested in benefiting from the changes. How?David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
More Market Landmarks
More Market Landmarks
But what do they mean? The euro costs $1.5767 at this moment. Bear Stearns has sold for $2 per share. What does this mean for you and your clients? Does the cheap dollar indicate time for a feeding frenzy? Does it indicate a time to wait and see if it drops some more?
For those of us who are holding our money in dollars the situation is even more dire. If we hold our money looking for opportunities, the money may lose even more value. If we buy local assets, they may lose value. If we buy foreign assets and the dollar comes back strong we lose again. In times like these, I have always told my clients either to hold their cash or to buy property depending on the situation. I don’t know what to tell them now.
I do not see the USA economy recovering as long as George Bush is in office. I think it is a safe bet that the Yen and the Euro will continue to rise at least until after the elections. I also think it is a safe bet that interest rates will fall. The problem is nobody wants to make loans. If one can find loans, this fall should be a good time to refinance. I don’t know where to put money though. The American economies are too closely tied to the dollar. China is too dependent on oil. Europe is overpriced. Sorry, no answers today. Only questions.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
But what do they mean? The euro costs $1.5767 at this moment. Bear Stearns has sold for $2 per share. What does this mean for you and your clients? Does the cheap dollar indicate time for a feeding frenzy? Does it indicate a time to wait and see if it drops some more?
For those of us who are holding our money in dollars the situation is even more dire. If we hold our money looking for opportunities, the money may lose even more value. If we buy local assets, they may lose value. If we buy foreign assets and the dollar comes back strong we lose again. In times like these, I have always told my clients either to hold their cash or to buy property depending on the situation. I don’t know what to tell them now.
I do not see the USA economy recovering as long as George Bush is in office. I think it is a safe bet that the Yen and the Euro will continue to rise at least until after the elections. I also think it is a safe bet that interest rates will fall. The problem is nobody wants to make loans. If one can find loans, this fall should be a good time to refinance. I don’t know where to put money though. The American economies are too closely tied to the dollar. China is too dependent on oil. Europe is overpriced. Sorry, no answers today. Only questions.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Thursday, March 13, 2008
Market Landmarkes
Market Landmarks
Normally this blog talks about international issues and properties. I think market landmarks are approaching for many areas in the USA. Many of the properties on the market are fairly priced or under-priced. They are suffering from the general hysteria. Watch for good properties that have been on the market a while. Talk to the listing agent or owner and get their opinion on why the property hasn’t sold. Investigate the reason for validity. Do a rental analysis to see if the property will support itself during a holding period. Make a low but reasonable offer.
I think the market in general will come back strong within 6 to 10 months. The demand is still there. Fear has paralyzed the market.
The exceptions to this condition are the properties in neighborhoods with a lot of foreclosures. Many of these properties are being purchased by investors. They will become rental properties. Many of these properties were shoddy construction to start with. Life as a rental home is not easy even for quality properties. I doubt that these neighborhoods will ever recover totally and even when they do, their appreciation will probably be less than the general market.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Normally this blog talks about international issues and properties. I think market landmarks are approaching for many areas in the USA. Many of the properties on the market are fairly priced or under-priced. They are suffering from the general hysteria. Watch for good properties that have been on the market a while. Talk to the listing agent or owner and get their opinion on why the property hasn’t sold. Investigate the reason for validity. Do a rental analysis to see if the property will support itself during a holding period. Make a low but reasonable offer.
I think the market in general will come back strong within 6 to 10 months. The demand is still there. Fear has paralyzed the market.
The exceptions to this condition are the properties in neighborhoods with a lot of foreclosures. Many of these properties are being purchased by investors. They will become rental properties. Many of these properties were shoddy construction to start with. Life as a rental home is not easy even for quality properties. I doubt that these neighborhoods will ever recover totally and even when they do, their appreciation will probably be less than the general market.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Politics and Real Estate
Politics & Real Estate
Just how much influence does the political situation in a country have to do with the value and desirability of the real estate? The answer is like John McCain’s underwear. It depends. It is hard to think about politics when walking on a pristine beach or soaking in a hot spring or playing a few rounds on a gorgeous golf course. The problem comes from the appearance to outside investors.
People don’t really mind paying property taxes, they want to know how much they will be from year to year. Stability is the most important thing any government can do for its real estate industry. The left leaning governments in Latin America have not frightened investors much except for Hugo Chavez. The problem there is the possibility of expropriation by the government. The political leaning is not as much a factor as the lack of stability.
Opportunities for profit abound wherever the outside perceives the political or safety situation to be worse than it actually is. Colombia is a great example of this. Crime is much higher in several countries. The chance of being kidnapped is greater in many countries. The way to assess a market is with your feet. Put them on the ground. Go to some coffee shops and bars. Listen to what people are saying. Identify Market Landmarks.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Just how much influence does the political situation in a country have to do with the value and desirability of the real estate? The answer is like John McCain’s underwear. It depends. It is hard to think about politics when walking on a pristine beach or soaking in a hot spring or playing a few rounds on a gorgeous golf course. The problem comes from the appearance to outside investors.
People don’t really mind paying property taxes, they want to know how much they will be from year to year. Stability is the most important thing any government can do for its real estate industry. The left leaning governments in Latin America have not frightened investors much except for Hugo Chavez. The problem there is the possibility of expropriation by the government. The political leaning is not as much a factor as the lack of stability.
Opportunities for profit abound wherever the outside perceives the political or safety situation to be worse than it actually is. Colombia is a great example of this. Crime is much higher in several countries. The chance of being kidnapped is greater in many countries. The way to assess a market is with your feet. Put them on the ground. Go to some coffee shops and bars. Listen to what people are saying. Identify Market Landmarks.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Friday, March 7, 2008
Book Review "Tasación de Inmuebles"
Book Review
Tasación de inmuebles
This book is written by Germán Gómez Picasso and José Rozados. The title could be loosely translated as “Evaluation of Real Estate”. This is an excellent book on appraisal for anyone who can read Spanish. The authors are based in Argentina. They say the book is valid any where in the Spanish-speaking world. I have taken several classes and read quite a few books on appraisal. I learned a lot from this one.
Think about a real estate environment where the information in the public records is mostly fraudulent. There is no MLS to furnish comparable sales data. Many of the properties are constructed by the owners without permits. How do you do an appraisal under those conditions? It will be difficult under any circumstances. If you read this book at least you will have a method. A significant part of the book is dedicated to the science of obtaining information. It is also suggested that many more comparables be used.
This book is one of a series of five books. I am reading the second now, which is on negotiation. The series can be purchased online at http://www.brendiciones.com I would recommend it very highly for anyone who can read Spanish and who practices real estate under non-standard market information conditions.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Tasación de inmuebles
This book is written by Germán Gómez Picasso and José Rozados. The title could be loosely translated as “Evaluation of Real Estate”. This is an excellent book on appraisal for anyone who can read Spanish. The authors are based in Argentina. They say the book is valid any where in the Spanish-speaking world. I have taken several classes and read quite a few books on appraisal. I learned a lot from this one.
Think about a real estate environment where the information in the public records is mostly fraudulent. There is no MLS to furnish comparable sales data. Many of the properties are constructed by the owners without permits. How do you do an appraisal under those conditions? It will be difficult under any circumstances. If you read this book at least you will have a method. A significant part of the book is dedicated to the science of obtaining information. It is also suggested that many more comparables be used.
This book is one of a series of five books. I am reading the second now, which is on negotiation. The series can be purchased online at http://www.brendiciones.com I would recommend it very highly for anyone who can read Spanish and who practices real estate under non-standard market information conditions.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Monday, March 3, 2008
Big Developers USA & Abroad
Big Developers USA & Abroad
Thanks to Liviu Ureche for the correction on the location of the Romania Course. Also I think there will be a course offering at Varna in Bulgaria in May. This is a beautiful resort on the Black Sea.
Yesterday I met with the representative from a Spanish Developer. She was telling me about projects they are doing in Panama City and Mexico. The Panama city project is a 70 + story residential building. That is big. Lots of developers do stuff that big though. The project in Mexico is a city.
With the exception of Rouse and Levitt, USA developers do projects like subdivisions, shopping centers, high rise buildings or the occasional mixed development. They do nothing of the scale of some of the international developers. The international developers go in and install infrastructure and organize governments and even build airports and negotiate with airlines to add flights. They take a bare beach or pure wilderness and turn it into a booming metropolis.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Thanks to Liviu Ureche for the correction on the location of the Romania Course. Also I think there will be a course offering at Varna in Bulgaria in May. This is a beautiful resort on the Black Sea.
Yesterday I met with the representative from a Spanish Developer. She was telling me about projects they are doing in Panama City and Mexico. The Panama city project is a 70 + story residential building. That is big. Lots of developers do stuff that big though. The project in Mexico is a city.
With the exception of Rouse and Levitt, USA developers do projects like subdivisions, shopping centers, high rise buildings or the occasional mixed development. They do nothing of the scale of some of the international developers. The international developers go in and install infrastructure and organize governments and even build airports and negotiate with airlines to add flights. They take a bare beach or pure wilderness and turn it into a booming metropolis.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
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