Will Globalization be a Victim of the Recession?
Migrant workers are returning home in droves. Even those who are not going home are reducing the remittances they send. Economic immigration is slowing to a trickle. Workers in almost every country blame job losses on “cheap foreign labor”. That includes the providers of “cheap foreign labor”. Luxury 2nd home sales and international tourism have dropped substantially.
Trends are evident in the real estate market. The “bottom fishers” are finally coming out. In most countries the bottom fishers are foreign investors. The middle-eastern investors especially are in a buying mode. In some markets, local investors are buying assets that foreigners cannot afford to keep. Corporate mergers and acquisitions are way up. The economist says they have increased 25% over last year. These are stronger companies taking over weaker companies for the most part. Also they are weaker companies trying to get together to stay afloat.
As the world economy contracts forces will pull in two directions. There will be reduced incentive to export jobs and import goods. There will be an increase in searches for investment opportunities in other markets. Good luck world.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
What Now?
What Now?
The economic stimulus bill has passed. Help is on the way. What about the businesses, jobs and homes that are irrevocably lost? Maybe they will come back in some form. The people who held those jobs will probably find somewhere to work even if it is the unofficial economy. The people who lived in those homes will find a place to live and eventually get another home even if they have to rent it. Consumption of housing is as important to our industry as home ownership.
Perhaps the greatest tragedy is the time of people’s lives that is spent in despair and the relationships that are damaged or lost. Most of us in the real estate industry are used to hard times and we may have had a lot of changes in our lives. Someone with a “real job”, who has been employed at the same place most of their lives may feel as if they have had an amputation when that career comes to an end.
The stock market will come back someday as well as everything else. How many people have their retirement funds invested in such a way that they cannot delay cashing in some of their assets? The financial problems of the recession will end. Some of the human wreckage left in the wake will be with us for a generation.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
The economic stimulus bill has passed. Help is on the way. What about the businesses, jobs and homes that are irrevocably lost? Maybe they will come back in some form. The people who held those jobs will probably find somewhere to work even if it is the unofficial economy. The people who lived in those homes will find a place to live and eventually get another home even if they have to rent it. Consumption of housing is as important to our industry as home ownership.
Perhaps the greatest tragedy is the time of people’s lives that is spent in despair and the relationships that are damaged or lost. Most of us in the real estate industry are used to hard times and we may have had a lot of changes in our lives. Someone with a “real job”, who has been employed at the same place most of their lives may feel as if they have had an amputation when that career comes to an end.
The stock market will come back someday as well as everything else. How many people have their retirement funds invested in such a way that they cannot delay cashing in some of their assets? The financial problems of the recession will end. Some of the human wreckage left in the wake will be with us for a generation.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Nobody Knows
Nobody Knows
I have found 2 articles lately that propose to tell what the real estate business is going to be like in the coming months. What I learned from both articles is that the author hasn’t a clue. One guy said to be sure to buy “value”. He did not say what he meant by “value”. Last year I would have described “value” as a credit tenant with a long term lease. The question now with that formula is who is a credit tenant?
There are businesses that are doing well. Family Dollar for example is growing their profits. Family dollar stores are normally in ratty neighborhoods. One would probably have to buy a small strip center with mom & pop tenants and the family dollar store to get just the one tenant. Family dollar being the anchor surely has an advantageous lease. The Levines are some of the hardest negotiators on earth. The terms of their lease may not be very good.
Maybe it is best just to keep cash. I can’t help but thinking the economic stimulus package is going to stimulate the printing presses. What will that do to the value of cash?
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
I have found 2 articles lately that propose to tell what the real estate business is going to be like in the coming months. What I learned from both articles is that the author hasn’t a clue. One guy said to be sure to buy “value”. He did not say what he meant by “value”. Last year I would have described “value” as a credit tenant with a long term lease. The question now with that formula is who is a credit tenant?
There are businesses that are doing well. Family Dollar for example is growing their profits. Family dollar stores are normally in ratty neighborhoods. One would probably have to buy a small strip center with mom & pop tenants and the family dollar store to get just the one tenant. Family dollar being the anchor surely has an advantageous lease. The Levines are some of the hardest negotiators on earth. The terms of their lease may not be very good.
Maybe it is best just to keep cash. I can’t help but thinking the economic stimulus package is going to stimulate the printing presses. What will that do to the value of cash?
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Thursday, February 5, 2009
A Feeling in the Air
A Feeling in the Air
I don’t think the recession is even close to being over. I do think we are very close to the bottom. I am basing this on call volume on listings and rentals. People have been afraid. They have put things off as long as they can in many cases. There are many people who have the ability and the desire to buy. They have not had the confidence. The confidence does not seem to have changed that much. The need has.
There are things that are important. Other things are urgent. Important things can become urgent if they are ignored long enough. That could be what is happening now. The call volume is picking up. The transaction volume hasn’t budged yet. Hopefully one will follow the other. What is happening with your business?
There has not been much optimistic news; but at least the new administration is changing a lot of very negative things. They are making some mistakes as well. At least when Mr. Obaba screws up he admits it. Hopefully the age of “mistakes have been made” is over.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
I don’t think the recession is even close to being over. I do think we are very close to the bottom. I am basing this on call volume on listings and rentals. People have been afraid. They have put things off as long as they can in many cases. There are many people who have the ability and the desire to buy. They have not had the confidence. The confidence does not seem to have changed that much. The need has.
There are things that are important. Other things are urgent. Important things can become urgent if they are ignored long enough. That could be what is happening now. The call volume is picking up. The transaction volume hasn’t budged yet. Hopefully one will follow the other. What is happening with your business?
There has not been much optimistic news; but at least the new administration is changing a lot of very negative things. They are making some mistakes as well. At least when Mr. Obaba screws up he admits it. Hopefully the age of “mistakes have been made” is over.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
The Silver Lining
The Silver Lining
They say, “Every dark cloud has a silver lining”. I am looking hard. Does having more time to spend on my blog count? I am not giving up on the silver lining. I know that soon I will have a new business model that works. I have been here before and survival always comes and the business always comes back stronger.
Until mid December the rentals were pretty strong. Since then tenants have been hard to find. The good news is new properties are not hard to find. Building up the rental property base will be good if they rent. They will. It may not be at the desired price; but they will rent. Credit standards will have to be relaxed a little bit; but not too much. It is better to have an empty house ready to rent than a house with a bad tenant.
A lot of us old dogs are probably learning some new technology tricks. This will make us more competitive and more efficient. Maybe there is a silver lining.
Please help me in my search for a new model. What do you think the world of real estate will look like next year?
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
They say, “Every dark cloud has a silver lining”. I am looking hard. Does having more time to spend on my blog count? I am not giving up on the silver lining. I know that soon I will have a new business model that works. I have been here before and survival always comes and the business always comes back stronger.
Until mid December the rentals were pretty strong. Since then tenants have been hard to find. The good news is new properties are not hard to find. Building up the rental property base will be good if they rent. They will. It may not be at the desired price; but they will rent. Credit standards will have to be relaxed a little bit; but not too much. It is better to have an empty house ready to rent than a house with a bad tenant.
A lot of us old dogs are probably learning some new technology tricks. This will make us more competitive and more efficient. Maybe there is a silver lining.
Please help me in my search for a new model. What do you think the world of real estate will look like next year?
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
New Model Revisited
New Model Revisited
In an earlier series of articles we discussed what changes would take place in the international economy and the real estate industry. We did not really sum up what the new world will look like because we don’t know, nor did we talk about how to survive and prosper in this new world. In a class I taught Wednesday, one of the students was from a company that specializes in foreclosures. The have a department in the company that handles foreclosures for the bank. Other agents answer the phone and work for the buyers. This seems to be a successful model.
This model will probably work well for several years. If the agents who work the buyers maintain contact with these buyers, they will have their client base built for the future. I have to admit to having no taste for this type of business. I think I would rather work in a convenience store. The first rule of business planning is to do something you love. What I would really love is to do business the way I have for the last 20+ years and be successful at it. I know that won’t work.
Please help me in my search for a new model. What do you think the world of real estate will look like next year.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
In an earlier series of articles we discussed what changes would take place in the international economy and the real estate industry. We did not really sum up what the new world will look like because we don’t know, nor did we talk about how to survive and prosper in this new world. In a class I taught Wednesday, one of the students was from a company that specializes in foreclosures. The have a department in the company that handles foreclosures for the bank. Other agents answer the phone and work for the buyers. This seems to be a successful model.
This model will probably work well for several years. If the agents who work the buyers maintain contact with these buyers, they will have their client base built for the future. I have to admit to having no taste for this type of business. I think I would rather work in a convenience store. The first rule of business planning is to do something you love. What I would really love is to do business the way I have for the last 20+ years and be successful at it. I know that won’t work.
Please help me in my search for a new model. What do you think the world of real estate will look like next year.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com
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