Total Cost of Occupancy
Yesterday’s blog discussed methods of evaluating properties in locations where comparable sales are not available or highly inaccurate. One way to compare properties but not evaluate them is to determine the total costs of occupancy. This is a common method of decision making for commercial occupants of space. It is even used to make rent vs. own decisions.
The basic idea is to add all the costs of occupying a property. This could be rent or mortgage payment. If the property is purchased for cash, the cost of not having the money any longer would be evaluated or the purchase price could be amortized as if it had been loaned to a third party. To this would be added taxes, utilities, common area maintenance charges (in a multi-tenant situation) and or maintenance.
A commercial occupant would consider the costs of access to clients and access for employees. Someone looking at a vacation home would look at airfare and telephone costs of the different locations. When considering different cities employment costs must be taken into consideration. In many areas, a residence can not be left unattended. Servants may be needed to live in the property when the owner is away. In a rental, the costs of supervision or management and leasing must be considered. It is also a good idea for any budget to have a generous allocation for “miscellaneous expenses”.
After all of the costs of occupancy are totaled the properties can be compared. In a personal use property this is important; but non-quantifiable items may be just as important. Things like the quality of the environment or the neighbors or personal safety. Even items like the future of the country and possible changes in political, economic and climate conditions. The next blog will discuss winners and losers in climate change.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http:www.segrestrealty.com .
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
Monday, October 1, 2007
Evaluation of Foreign Properties
Evaluation of Foreign Properties
How do appraisals get done in markets that are not transparent? In the developed world we can use comparable sales. How does one get comparable sales on properties when the records are either non-existent or fraudulent? There is no really good answer to this dilemma; but there are ways of getting pretty close to the value.
On income properties it is relatively easy to get the rent paid on the particular property or see the rent advertised for similar properties. One should keep in mind that asking rent and the amount accepted may be different. Capitalization rate is the amount of net income divided by the purchase price. From this number something should be subtracted for “risk premium” before comparing the yield with investments in other countries or even other types of properties.
In emerging markets, the yield is seldom in line with the price. The properties in many of these areas are appreciating so fast that prices outstrip rents quickly. One way of accounting for this phenomenon is to use the Internal Rate of Return. The internal rate of return discounts all the projected cash flows plus a reversion at some point in time back to the beginning of the investment. All of the cash flows should produce a net present value of 0% when discounted back to the beginning.
There are several problems with this method. The main problem is that the further away from the beginning of the investment the projection goes, the more inaccurate it will be. In any market quickly rising prices are something like a game of musical chairs. The property keeps selling for a higher and higher price. When the music stops the price stops increasing or declines and the last person is left with an overpriced property.
Another problem with internal rate of return is that it assumes all cash flows are reinvested at the same rate as the investment being measured. This is not necessarily the case. A financial managers rate of return assumes small amounts of money are reinvested at a “safe rate” until enough money is accumulated to reach a “reinvestment threshold”. At this point the money is assumed to be invested at a “reinvestment rate”. This gives a better method for comparison.
For user properties total cost of occupancy can be used to compare properties. This does not really establish a market value. The next blog will consider total cost of occupancy.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http:www.segrestrealty.com .
How do appraisals get done in markets that are not transparent? In the developed world we can use comparable sales. How does one get comparable sales on properties when the records are either non-existent or fraudulent? There is no really good answer to this dilemma; but there are ways of getting pretty close to the value.
On income properties it is relatively easy to get the rent paid on the particular property or see the rent advertised for similar properties. One should keep in mind that asking rent and the amount accepted may be different. Capitalization rate is the amount of net income divided by the purchase price. From this number something should be subtracted for “risk premium” before comparing the yield with investments in other countries or even other types of properties.
In emerging markets, the yield is seldom in line with the price. The properties in many of these areas are appreciating so fast that prices outstrip rents quickly. One way of accounting for this phenomenon is to use the Internal Rate of Return. The internal rate of return discounts all the projected cash flows plus a reversion at some point in time back to the beginning of the investment. All of the cash flows should produce a net present value of 0% when discounted back to the beginning.
There are several problems with this method. The main problem is that the further away from the beginning of the investment the projection goes, the more inaccurate it will be. In any market quickly rising prices are something like a game of musical chairs. The property keeps selling for a higher and higher price. When the music stops the price stops increasing or declines and the last person is left with an overpriced property.
Another problem with internal rate of return is that it assumes all cash flows are reinvested at the same rate as the investment being measured. This is not necessarily the case. A financial managers rate of return assumes small amounts of money are reinvested at a “safe rate” until enough money is accumulated to reach a “reinvestment threshold”. At this point the money is assumed to be invested at a “reinvestment rate”. This gives a better method for comparison.
For user properties total cost of occupancy can be used to compare properties. This does not really establish a market value. The next blog will consider total cost of occupancy.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http:www.segrestrealty.com .
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Immigration policy and 2nd home surge in Mexico & Central America
How US Immigration Policies are Fueling the 2nd Home Surge in Mexico & Central America
The falling dollar, great natural beauty and political stability make the US an ideal retirement or second home location. The immigrants and visitors who come and buy for this purpose are welcome additions to whatever community they grace with their presence. They spend money and don’t take jobs. They don’t participate in entitlement programs. Most of the countries in the world are striving to attract these people.
The USA would be first choice for many of these people; but the unfriendly atmosphere runs them away. Most of the people in the USA are really friendly and welcoming of outsiders. Almost any religion is welcome or at least tolerated. The problem is the bureaucracy at homeland security. Everyone is treated as a terrorist until proven otherwise. The countries of Central America and Mexico realize the benefits of immigration and support it. They welcome immigrants with open arms.
The USA should have a special retirement visa. ( I think it is in the works). In addition to that we should have special programs for school teachers, scientists and mathematicians. Foreign students should receive a warm welcome in our educational system and should be encouraged to remain after graduation. A fast track for citizenship should be offered for students graduating from USA colleges and universities.
Diversity enriches our society in many ways. Some diversity enriches our society more than others. If legal immigration were easier we would attract more law abiding immigrants. Our current policies attract only people who are willing to be criminals in order to come here.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http:www.segrestrealty.com .
The falling dollar, great natural beauty and political stability make the US an ideal retirement or second home location. The immigrants and visitors who come and buy for this purpose are welcome additions to whatever community they grace with their presence. They spend money and don’t take jobs. They don’t participate in entitlement programs. Most of the countries in the world are striving to attract these people.
The USA would be first choice for many of these people; but the unfriendly atmosphere runs them away. Most of the people in the USA are really friendly and welcoming of outsiders. Almost any religion is welcome or at least tolerated. The problem is the bureaucracy at homeland security. Everyone is treated as a terrorist until proven otherwise. The countries of Central America and Mexico realize the benefits of immigration and support it. They welcome immigrants with open arms.
The USA should have a special retirement visa. ( I think it is in the works). In addition to that we should have special programs for school teachers, scientists and mathematicians. Foreign students should receive a warm welcome in our educational system and should be encouraged to remain after graduation. A fast track for citizenship should be offered for students graduating from USA colleges and universities.
Diversity enriches our society in many ways. Some diversity enriches our society more than others. If legal immigration were easier we would attract more law abiding immigrants. Our current policies attract only people who are willing to be criminals in order to come here.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http:www.segrestrealty.com .
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Which Indexes to Watch
Which Indexes to Watch
Reading the Economist, listening to NPR or CNN, one is deluged with numbers from indexes. There is even an index of leading economic indicators. Is that something like the National Association of Associations? Anyone who has ever traveled to a developing country knows that the information in these indexes is either totally erroneous or simply “plucked from the air”.
In the USA we have a yardstick called the consumer price index. This started out as being a total cost of a “basket” full of items. The government uses this to determine how much to increase payments under entitlement programs. It is in the best interest of the Government to keep the increases low. They have determined that tying this index to a “fixed” basket of goods is not as valid because if something in the basket gets more expensive, a prudent consumer will buy something else. In other words if the price of filet mignon goes up, people will make do with chitterlings. Sometimes I hear on the radio that inflation last month was low except for food and fuel. How long does anyone go without buying food or fuel.
The most relevant index for everything in my estimation is the consumer confidence index. The performance of the stock market, real estate prices, currency exchange rates and everything else in the economy is tied to fear or confidence in the market place. The problem with the consumer confidence index is that it is based on surveys and numbers. I think a better confidence index would be to take everyone’s blood pressure and base the index on the average change in blood pressure. Since this index is unavailable I have another one I use. I call it the “Lunchette index”. It is not very scientific and it doesn’t have a numerical number for reference. I go to lower to middle class eating and drinking establishments and listen to what people are complaining about. If people are complaining about the food or their job or the government, that is good. If people are complaining about prices or taxes, that is not so good. When people are complaining about their family relationships, they are under severe financial stress.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http:www.segrestrealty.com .
Reading the Economist, listening to NPR or CNN, one is deluged with numbers from indexes. There is even an index of leading economic indicators. Is that something like the National Association of Associations? Anyone who has ever traveled to a developing country knows that the information in these indexes is either totally erroneous or simply “plucked from the air”.
In the USA we have a yardstick called the consumer price index. This started out as being a total cost of a “basket” full of items. The government uses this to determine how much to increase payments under entitlement programs. It is in the best interest of the Government to keep the increases low. They have determined that tying this index to a “fixed” basket of goods is not as valid because if something in the basket gets more expensive, a prudent consumer will buy something else. In other words if the price of filet mignon goes up, people will make do with chitterlings. Sometimes I hear on the radio that inflation last month was low except for food and fuel. How long does anyone go without buying food or fuel.
The most relevant index for everything in my estimation is the consumer confidence index. The performance of the stock market, real estate prices, currency exchange rates and everything else in the economy is tied to fear or confidence in the market place. The problem with the consumer confidence index is that it is based on surveys and numbers. I think a better confidence index would be to take everyone’s blood pressure and base the index on the average change in blood pressure. Since this index is unavailable I have another one I use. I call it the “Lunchette index”. It is not very scientific and it doesn’t have a numerical number for reference. I go to lower to middle class eating and drinking establishments and listen to what people are complaining about. If people are complaining about the food or their job or the government, that is good. If people are complaining about prices or taxes, that is not so good. When people are complaining about their family relationships, they are under severe financial stress.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http:www.segrestrealty.com .
Saturday, September 22, 2007
Micro Events, Macro Results
Micro Events Macro Results
A common comedy theme is the tiny event with imagined (usually stretched) consequences that turn into a major possible implication. The comedy versions are usually far fetched. In the real world this stuff can happen. A good example is the current sub-prime crisis.
Only a very small percentage of mortgages are in foreclosure. Of those, many will liquidate without a large loss. The real crisis is fear. The sudden lack of confidence in mortgage backed securities has caused a liquidity crunch. This is not just in the sub prime market. When mortgage brokers can’t sell their accumulated mortgages, they can’t get the money to make more mortgages. No mortgages in most of the civilized world means no sales. No sales means no building. No building means no jobs and no materials purchases. The secondary purchases people make when they buy a house are also drying up.
Another by-blow of the sub-prime crisis is that noone really knows who owns all the bad mortgages. Investors afraid of getting stuck don’t invest. The whole world economy suffers. Is this a market landmark? How much further will the economies tank. The stock exchanges have benefited from the Federal Reserve rate cut. How long will this exuberance last? Answer these questions. Get rich.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http:www.segrestrealty.com .
A common comedy theme is the tiny event with imagined (usually stretched) consequences that turn into a major possible implication. The comedy versions are usually far fetched. In the real world this stuff can happen. A good example is the current sub-prime crisis.
Only a very small percentage of mortgages are in foreclosure. Of those, many will liquidate without a large loss. The real crisis is fear. The sudden lack of confidence in mortgage backed securities has caused a liquidity crunch. This is not just in the sub prime market. When mortgage brokers can’t sell their accumulated mortgages, they can’t get the money to make more mortgages. No mortgages in most of the civilized world means no sales. No sales means no building. No building means no jobs and no materials purchases. The secondary purchases people make when they buy a house are also drying up.
Another by-blow of the sub-prime crisis is that noone really knows who owns all the bad mortgages. Investors afraid of getting stuck don’t invest. The whole world economy suffers. Is this a market landmark? How much further will the economies tank. The stock exchanges have benefited from the Federal Reserve rate cut. How long will this exuberance last? Answer these questions. Get rich.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http:www.segrestrealty.com .
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
Population Change and International Real Estate
Population Change and International Real Estate
According to an article in The Economist magazine, by the year 2015 the world population will begin to decline. What will this mean for international real estate? I am not an economist or a futurist; but I do read science fiction sometimes. The dire situations there are usually for the purpose of supporting an unreal environment for the purpose of speculation.
What will really happen? Already the population is moving from rural areas to urban ones. More efficient agriculture makes this possible for now. More efficient is not always better. People who can afford it are avoiding factory-grown food as much as possible. People are also moving from developing countries to developed ones for employment and standard of living reasons. Oddly enough other people are going the other way for the same reasons. Central Americans and Mexicans are moving to the US and Spain to find work and money. People from the USA and Spain are going to Central America and Mexico for a slower less expensive lifestyle.
People are living longer in most of the developing world. The birth rate is dropping. The economists seem to think that retirement ages will have to increase. The economists have been shown to be wrong about the things a country should do to increase GDP growth and improve their economies. Maybe they are wrong about this too. Over consumption is wasteful and expensive and after some time it loses its appeal. The Europeans work 36 hours a week and still have unemployment.
If work becomes more portable and people do jobs that do not use up valuable natural resources and energy and do not pollute the environment, think what a change that will make. Automobiles could last 20 years easily. Sure the old cars use more gasoline and pollute a little bit more. How much energy consumption and pollution is caused by making a new one? Why do we need to replace perfectly good clothes because of style changes?
Maybe instead of more consumer goods, a more leisurely population would need more music, more art, more literature. We could live anywhere and produce these things and enjoy life in our own way.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte, NC
David S. Segrest, CIPS, CCIM, TRC, CEA
david@segrestrealty.com
http://www.segrestrealty.com
Serving the world in the Carolinas, Serving the Carolinas in the World
According to an article in The Economist magazine, by the year 2015 the world population will begin to decline. What will this mean for international real estate? I am not an economist or a futurist; but I do read science fiction sometimes. The dire situations there are usually for the purpose of supporting an unreal environment for the purpose of speculation.
What will really happen? Already the population is moving from rural areas to urban ones. More efficient agriculture makes this possible for now. More efficient is not always better. People who can afford it are avoiding factory-grown food as much as possible. People are also moving from developing countries to developed ones for employment and standard of living reasons. Oddly enough other people are going the other way for the same reasons. Central Americans and Mexicans are moving to the US and Spain to find work and money. People from the USA and Spain are going to Central America and Mexico for a slower less expensive lifestyle.
People are living longer in most of the developing world. The birth rate is dropping. The economists seem to think that retirement ages will have to increase. The economists have been shown to be wrong about the things a country should do to increase GDP growth and improve their economies. Maybe they are wrong about this too. Over consumption is wasteful and expensive and after some time it loses its appeal. The Europeans work 36 hours a week and still have unemployment.
If work becomes more portable and people do jobs that do not use up valuable natural resources and energy and do not pollute the environment, think what a change that will make. Automobiles could last 20 years easily. Sure the old cars use more gasoline and pollute a little bit more. How much energy consumption and pollution is caused by making a new one? Why do we need to replace perfectly good clothes because of style changes?
Maybe instead of more consumer goods, a more leisurely population would need more music, more art, more literature. We could live anywhere and produce these things and enjoy life in our own way.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte, NC
David S. Segrest, CIPS, CCIM, TRC, CEA
david@segrestrealty.com
http://www.segrestrealty.com
Serving the world in the Carolinas, Serving the Carolinas in the World
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
Lot Polish and Orbitz
Why I will never book with either one of these companies again:
In May I taught a CIPS Institute in Romania. I made the serious mistake of booking my ticket with Orbitz. Have you ever tried to communicate with Orbitz other than to buy a ticket?
Orbitz booked me an illegal connection in Newark NJ. I took US Air to Newark from Charlotte. They were 15 minutes late. I went to the Lot Polish check in. They would not let me check in because there was less than an hour before my flight. I had to be in Romania the next morning. The only help they were willing to give me was to "try" to put me on the next days flight. I went back to USAir. Not much help there. They did find me an alternative flight on Continental.
I went back to Lot Polish. They had closed and gone home. I booked on Continental and paid for it myself. When I came back I tried for refunds and complained to the FHA. I stopped the payment on my credit card. The credit card did not understand so they went ahead after a couple of months and reinstated the payment. I paid for 2 tickets. I only flew once. I would strongly advise against booking any ticket with Orbitz.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte, NC
David S. Segrest, CIPS, CCIM, TRC, CEA
david@segrestrealty.com
http://www.segrestrealty.com
Serving the world in the Carolinas, Serving the Carolinas in the World
In May I taught a CIPS Institute in Romania. I made the serious mistake of booking my ticket with Orbitz. Have you ever tried to communicate with Orbitz other than to buy a ticket?
Orbitz booked me an illegal connection in Newark NJ. I took US Air to Newark from Charlotte. They were 15 minutes late. I went to the Lot Polish check in. They would not let me check in because there was less than an hour before my flight. I had to be in Romania the next morning. The only help they were willing to give me was to "try" to put me on the next days flight. I went back to USAir. Not much help there. They did find me an alternative flight on Continental.
I went back to Lot Polish. They had closed and gone home. I booked on Continental and paid for it myself. When I came back I tried for refunds and complained to the FHA. I stopped the payment on my credit card. The credit card did not understand so they went ahead after a couple of months and reinstated the payment. I paid for 2 tickets. I only flew once. I would strongly advise against booking any ticket with Orbitz.
David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte, NC
David S. Segrest, CIPS, CCIM, TRC, CEA
david@segrestrealty.com
http://www.segrestrealty.com
Serving the world in the Carolinas, Serving the Carolinas in the World
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