Thursday, July 3, 2008

Which Engine Runs the Plane Now?

Which Engine Runs the Plane Now?

A few years ago I attended a lecture at which the speaker compared the world economy to a 747 airplane. He mentioned 4 engines. 1 was the USA, 1 was Europe, 1 was Japan and 1 was the developing world. This was right after the Asian Crisis. He said the only engine keeping the plane up was the USA. So what keeps us in the air today? Are we still flying or are we getting ready to crash?

The USA is being crushed by high commodity prices and war spending and bad government economic policies. Europe is sputtering. Japan is beginning to start back up. China and India is the engine that is keeping us in the air. They were not even considered in the speech the economist delivered. They were just lumped in as the developing world. The countries in the developing world are doing ok because of high commodity prices and because the growth of the internal economies in these countries is like a runaway diesel.

Will this 1 engine on the 747 keep us in the air long enough to get the other engines re-started? This is the big question. What if it doesn’t? Is a worldwide recession even possible, or will the symptom of the recession be the cure? A tremendous economic slowdown like a world recession would have to push down the price of commodities. Would this restart the other engines or just blow out the one that still runs?


David Segrest is a REALTOR in Charlotte NC. His website is http://www.segrestrealty.com His email is david@segrestrealty.com

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