Miami Congress (Dr. Yun) Pt. 1
A really great part of the Miami Congress is the presentation from the senior NAR economist. Dr. Lawrence Yun follows a couple of really great economist and he upholds the tradition well. I hope to have access to his overheads, which have a lot of numbers, soon. When I get that I will link you to them. Here we go from my presentation notes.
1) The current downturn follows an exceptional boom. There are several reasons for the downturn. They are primarily irrational exuberance and speculation.
2) The longterm market fundamentals are good.
3) “After the cleanup”. Subprime origination peaked in 2006. It had virtually disappeared by August of 2007.
4) Subprime defaults should rise through 1st Qtr of 2009.
5) Over half of defaults are from subprime. Only 9% of the loans are subprime.
6) Foreclosure has doubled from 1% to 2%. Detroit is 1st, Miami is 2nd. Areas with low subprime percentages are still seeing price growth.
Continued…..
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